Greater Phoenix has moved out of a seller’s market and into a balanced market, but it’s unclear how long this opportunity will last for buyers. December is typically the calm before the storm each year for the housing market, and this year is no different. New listings are at their lowest this month as many sellers opt to wait until January to list their home.
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Buyers who felt they lost out on the buyer’s market last year will be getting another chance this year. The Greater Phoenix housing market, on the whole, only has a few days left before it enters a balanced market. However, as 18 cities are still in seller’s markets, there are 11 that are either already in balance or in buyer’s markets.
The 4th quarter is here, and this is the best time of year to be a buyer in Greater Phoenix! Inventory continues to rise, up 22% in 10 weeks to be exact, and price reductions typically peak in October and November. Most sellers listing in October are motivated to close on their homes before the end of the year, but few are more motivated than builders.
It continues to be a sellers market across the greater Phoenix area. So far this year, sales prices have appreciated 6-7% over the past 8 months, with 12 fewer days on market compared to last year, and tighter negotiations within just 2% of the last list price on average. Sale prices are expected to continue rising mildly for the next 3 months.
Not a lot of changes are happening in the housing market right now. It’s as if both buyers and sellers are in a holding pattern awaiting a sign before making a move. Conventional mortgage rates have held steady in the high 6% and low 7% range for nearly 3 months now with little signs of a decline yet.
While many professionals tout appreciation as the main benefit of homeownership, higher mortgage rates bring another tool into the equation that hasn’t been promoted in well over a decade. That is the mortgage interest tax deduction.
Last month we reported that the year-over-year supply change will be negative within 6 weeks, and at that time supply was 80% higher than the previous year. Now 5 weeks later, supply is only 3.7% higher than last year’s count and is expected to be below 2022 in another week.
The sharp decline in supply for Greater Phoenix is a good reason for buyers to have a sense of urgency about purchasing a home. Since the beginning of 2023, supply counts have been declining at an average rate of 246 listings per week and since the peak in October, total supply is down 42%.
An 18,500-square-foot Paradise Valley estate has sold for $23.5 million in cash, setting a new record. The home has four garages, including a car showroom with antique gas pumps, two swimming pools and two libraries. It is located on five acres next to Mummy Mountain. The mansion also comes with two bars, a 900-bottle wine room, a theater, a piano room, a gym, a guest house and dozens of palm and orange trees.
It’s been an eventful 4 weeks, again. Conventional rates dropped from their high of 7.1% on March 2nd to 6.1% by April 5th. Buyers entering the market in Phoenix today may be getting an unexpected shock if they’re looking for desperate sellers and rock bottom prices. Two more cities entered seller’s markets this month, Surprise and Goodyear. Now 14 out of the 17 biggest cities are favoring sellers.